Probability vs. Possibility: Lottery Analysis in Quarantine

The probability of you winning is low, but the probability of someone winning is high. The paradox of the lottery.

It’s a scary time right now. Many people are losing their jobs, unemployment is past 20%, there is a global pandemic, and there doesn’t appear to be a clear path back to normalcy.

But the lottery is still being played in most states, with modifications. I know a few different people who play the lottery, and I was surprised to hear that they were still playing the game, despite it all. But as I thought about it more, the more sense it made (or so I thought).

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Spotify Sentiment Analysis: The Joy of the Jam

  • What you listen to influences your emotional state
  • It’s interesting to use music choices as a chance for reflection on the past
  • A R I Z O N A is a great band

I have been trying to figure out what to write about for a long time. Everything felt wrong or off that was outside of COVID-19, and I truly can’t contribute to that conversation, as much as I would like to. Not a virologist. Not an epidemiologist. I had a Waffle House dataset that I was going to use to model expected virus impact via number of store closures, but that felt wrong (if anyone wants it, reach out).

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The Reminder That We Are All Human

“A philosopher once asked, “Are we human because we gaze at the stars, or do we gaze at them because we are human?” Pointless, really…”Do the stars gaze back?” Now, that’s a question.”

Source: Neil Gaiman

I do not have the words for what is currently happening.

There is so much uncertainty. It is almost crushing, the sheer weight of the unknown. I didn’t realize that it would be so heavy. I didn’t understand how much I relied on knowledge, on the fact that today would at least be similar to tomorrow, that yesterday was like today, and that this would repeat indefinitely.

I didn’t realize how much I was taking for granted.

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Chocolate, at Any Cost: The Price Elasticity of the Candy Industry

  • Despite the increase in health consciousness among consumers, chocolate and other confectioneries are still in high demand
  • The new pricing methods for cocoa could cause candy makers to hike their prices
  • Some candy products have more room to change their prices because their quantity demanded won’t shift substantially. Other products are completely the opposite.
  • Candy is one of the most inelastic food categories, across all incomes.
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