Tag: finance

The Reminder That We Are All Human

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“A philosopher once asked, “Are we human because we gaze at the stars, or do we gaze at them because we are human?” Pointless, really…”Do the stars gaze back?” Now, that’s a question.”

Source: Neil Gaiman

I do not have the words for what is currently happening.

There is so much uncertainty. It is almost crushing, the sheer weight of the unknown. I didn’t realize that it would be so heavy. I didn’t understand how much I relied on knowledge, on the fact that today would at least be similar to tomorrow, that yesterday was like today, and that this would repeat indefinitely.

I didn’t realize how much I was taking for granted.

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The Key to High Returns: Ignoring all the Data

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  • The economy and the stock market are two different entities, but the impact that one has on the other is extremely important
  • The stock market has trended upward since its December lows
  • The hard data shows slowdowns, consumer sentiment is waning, but the market continues higher
  • The market trends to the upside over time, and getting exposure to the positive drift is beneficial for portfolios.

Economic reports have been delayed. The government exited a 35 day shutdown a few weeks ago, and are expected to enter another one February 15th if things don’t get resolved. March 2nd is the final day to figure things out with China, or tariffs go up to 25%. To say that there is uncertainty would be an understatement.

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Emerging Markets: Strong Dollar & The Path to Emerged Markets

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How do you value pieces of paper? What creates currency? What makes the dollar a reserve currency?

There are several different models used to value currency, including Purchasing Power Parity and the BEER (Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate) model, amongst others. There are several variables that go into those models, most notably conditional expectations, current rates, term premiums, national savings/investment, demographics, and interest rate differentials.

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